The Prediction Game
The predictions game is a tough racket. From the infamous “Dewey Defeats Truman” edition of the Chicago Daily Tribune to the prognosticators who picked the 2014 Bears to win the NFC North, foretelling the future has proven to be a profitable enterprise for very, very few.
In fact, just last year, we used this forum to tell you that mortgage interest rates would end 2014 above 5%. Hey we were only off by a 20% margin! Our luck was a little better on the matters of price appreciation and new-construction activity, but we didn’t exactly stick our necks out.
What we’ve come to realize is that we’re pretty darn good at selling real estate ($5.6 billion in 2014…a 28% increase over 2013) and, like most human beings, pretty average when it comes to making predictions. Of course, the more insight we have, the better we are at figuring out what’s ahead. That’s why we rely on reams of sales and pricing data, trends reports and boots-on-the-ground experience to guide our hypotheses and decision-making.